The Gavel - September 2024
Wholesale market opinion from our resident car, LCV and HGV auction experts, Kevin Blincowe, Stuart Peak and Chris Mynott.
Kevin Blincowe - cars
Since my last update back in July, the used car market has gone from strength to strength, with demand now outstripping supply. As always for this time of year, as we headed towards the new plate on 1st September, the units began to dry up as the market prepared for the new cars to go out and the part exchanges to come in. There has been a starvation of stock all round though, with fleet and finance units also being thin on the ground.
This has resulted in two things. Firstly values have held really well with some makes and models regularly going over and above CAP. Small city cars really are the flavour of the month with Fiestas, Corsas, A1s and Minis etc really ringing the bell when the come under the rostrum. More prestigious marques are also doing very well if they tick all the right condition and spec boxes, and also late year low mileage stock is hot in demand. Whilst there is a lack of consistency being reported in the retail space, the demand for used cars is definitely beginning to hot up as there is a dearth of stock available. With new ICE vehicles being sidelined in favour of BEV to hit ZEV targets, used ICE is seemingly top of everyone’s lists.
Buyer attendances have exceeded record targets again, with Leeds, Colchester and Bristol all enjoying record post-Covid attendances, some breaking records for the second time this year. While there will be a wave to ride in terms of volumes from the plate change, I don’t believe it will be a tsunami and we will see the demand that’s currently there continue the strong conversions and firm values in our lanes. As always, our teams are working hard to secure new business, but the performance for customers won in recent months is continuing to prove that our hybrid approach - the largest in the country - gives vendors great results. Hilton, Harwoods and Sturgess are just three of those who have seen amazing performance on both CAP and conversion since joining our sales programme.
As we approach Q4 and the end of 2024, the job is not done so I won’t begin to reflect on what a solid year it has been for auctions and the used car market. Manheim still has big ambitions for the remaining months and I want to make sure we drive the market and our results deliver on what we set out to do before we consider any pats on the back. To summarise: the summer saw consistent results, the beginning of autumn has seen the market grow strong with demand due to the lack of supply and is in a good place to digest imminent arrivals of volume from all our customers. I’m looking forward to my next update when we will be in the middle of healthier volumes.
Stuart Peak - LCVs
So the summer holidays are over and as I write this month’s Gavel entry, the weather seems to have turned too. With cooler temperatures and a bit of rain forecast this week, that can be a good thing for our auctions! Over the last week we have noticed demand has increased and a lot more faces have been visible compared to the last six weeks. Appetite at our sales certainly kicked into gear in the first week of September, and with guide prices also reducing further, many vans are currently looking like good value for money. I anticipate as we navigate through the rest of September we shall only see demand increase further and expect to see conversion rates continue to rise.
Reflecting back on August, I am certainly pleased with the overall performance. We sold a very healthy number of vans throughout the month and increased our sold volume vs August 2023 by 10%. Auction arrivals remained very healthy throughout the month too and increased by 27% YoY. We expected to see a drop off in buyer numbers throughout August, but compared to August 2023, 133 more buyers bought a van from one of our sales this August. We monitor our buyer numbers closely and our buyer services teams have been working hard all year to grow and maintain our LCV buyer base.
It is clear to see where the market pressures are, and that remains in the 3 to 6-year-old age brackets. Two thirds of all vans we sold in August fell into this age bracket and this has remained consistent throughout 2024. Grade 1 & 2 vans, as we would expect, performed well against guide values throughout the month - buyers are certainly willing to pay for cleaner vans that require minimal preparation. My message to vendors is it is always worth considering that additional upgrade valet or MOP, particularly when there is a lot of repetitive grade 4/5 stock in the market. With a little investment, we see how time and time again this will improve performance.
Looking ahead to October, we are all excited to be opening our new LCV & HGV combined supercentre in the south west. There is stacks of work going on in the background in re-opening our Gloucester site, and with great access via the M5, it offers our physical buyers in Wales, the south and Midlands a great place to buy physical stock from. Personally, for me, some of the best days of my nearly 23-year career with Manheim have been spent on a Thursday down at Dursley, and being part of that journey again is certainly something to look forward to! Watch this space for further updates over the coming weeks.
Chris Mynott - Truck and Plant
As a typical British summer draws to a close, August has been anything but quiet in the HGV sector. Whilst the market retained its seasonal and rather flat feel overall, the stats actually show quite a different story, and I’m pleased to report on another fabulous month for our buyers and vendors alike!
We saw a huge 21% year-on-year increase in sold volume versus same period in 2023 and average sale prices hitting just under the £15,000 mark, making August our second-best month of the year so far! – These are great numbers to see given the time of year.
In a month where many buyers are on holiday, it has been great to see our average attendance number sit at just under the 200 per auction mark, and whilst the interaction has been very good, it’s fair to say that a notable number of buyers have been spectating more than they have buying. Many traders still report quiet times, not buying for stock, only hitting the button when they have a sale on the hook or a significant chance of a deal down the line somewhere. The recent change of government and tough financial situation in the world right now are doing nothing for confidence and the transport sector in particular is still seeing some turbulent times, so it’s no surprise that our buyers are a little more cautious that they might have been in the past. But fear not, the HGV and plant buyers are a hardy bunch and as many tell me, they have been thru’ worse before!
We’ve seen a huge increase during August of late and low KMs product from our biggest rental vendor. Some trucks are just a year old with little more than delivery mileage, and such a variety of make, model and body type too, it’s been an auctioneers dream! The disparity between new cost (which is still absolutely HUGE!) and current used values have really made them look such good value and our buyers have lapped them up – and the supply of this kit looks set to continue well into Q3 and Q4 – perfect timing for the usual predicted pre-Christmas rush!
So it’s been a great month and we’re hoping it will continue to pick up a little as we get into September and beyond, when everyone is back and at it properly – and I can’t leave this write-up without a mention of some HUGE news we’ve brought to you in the past few weeks: the opening of a new HGV, plant and LCV supercentre at Gloucester! The site is currently undergoing a complete makeover and re-development ready for a grand opening this Autumn. This will see the re-introduction of HGV drive-thru lane in a combined CV sale event programme – some VERY exciting times and lots of great stuff to come for the rest of the year!
