CV update from Matthew Davock - 14th December 2016
November produced consistency in terms of conversion and outperformed the first six months of the year in terms of average selling price and price guide measures.
During November, the average selling prices at the UK’s number one CV auction company decreased by £241 when compared against October, but let’s not forget October produced a staggering £541 pound increase on September - October performed £321 better than any previous month in 2016. Back to November, and age increased by two months whilst mileage dropped by 3,000 miles, meaning the average age of stock sold concluded at 65 months and 75,926 miles.
Year on year analysis further demonstrates what a strong marketplace we witnessed during November. 2016 versus 2015: Sold volume - 17% increase | Age - 2 months younger | Mileage - 2,000 miles less | Overall conversion - 12% stronger | Average selling price - £396 higher.
On the back of a very strong performing month, we also recorded our third highest conversion rate of the year; improving by 12% versus November 2015.During this month, performance against the guides showed signs of consistency with the total market at Manheim Commercials recording a very healthy 97.35 of CAP average for all stock sold.
This is all on the back of 9% more volume offered against October and a staggering 17% against November 2015. This further unpins how healthy the van marketplace has been during November. Overall the van marketplace during 2016 has shown consistency, stability and growth on what has been a very strong 11 months of performance and conversion.
During November, our online performance went from strength to strength with 32% of all LCV’s selling to online buyers and a staggering 71% of all vans offered received an online bid. We also held a very successful online only auction featuring 93 franchise and independent buyers logged on, bidding was feverish and a total of 16 buyers won the battle to secure stock. Total online sales value was just over £393,000 equating to 102% of CAP average and all of this had a positive impact on our month’s performance.
Year on year online growth continues to unpin all the above, year to date online sold performance has grown by 6% against 2015, this led from a 12% increase in the number of online bids and an incredible 29% more buyers transacting or participating through Simulcast, our award winning online platform.
Throughout November, the following has been noticeable as seen through the buyers’ eyes, overlaying performance against the guide.
Car derived van (CDV)Hot
Ford Connect LWB, Citroen Berlingo Enterprise, Renault Kangoo, Fiat Doblo, Ford Fiesta new model
Not so hot
Vauxhall Corsa (-£300), Volkswagen Caddy standard (-£300), Ford Connect 2014+ L1 (-£600) L2 (-£400) Citroen Berlingo 2 seat models (-£300)
Small panel van (SPV)Hot
Ford Custom Limited, Renault Traffic Sport, Vauxhall Vivaro Sportive, Volkswagen Transporter Highline 140/180ps
Not so hot
Peugeot Expert/Citroen Dispatch (-£600), Volkswagen Transporter base model (-£500), Mercedes-Benz Vito (-£800), Vauxhall Vivaro base model (-£300), Ford Transit 260/280 (-£400), New Shape Renault Traffic/Vauxhall Vivaro (-£400)
Large panel van (LPV)Hot
Citroen Relay/Peugeot Boxer (12-13 plate), Ford Transit L3 H2 Trend, new model Ford L2/L3 and L4 Models, Ford Transit 350 LWB/high and medium roof examples (14 plate), Mercedes-Benz Sprinter MWB (new shape)
Not so hot
Citroen Relay /Peugeot Boxer 64/65 plate (-£1,800), Renault Master 64/65 plate (-£1,200), Volkswagen Crafter LWB 109/136ps 64/65 plate (-£1,800), Mercedes-Benz Sprinter new shape and old shape LWB 12/15 plate (-£800)
Ford Ranger Wildtrack/Limited models (62-14 plate), Toyota Hilux with leather, Isuzu high spec, Volkswagen Amarok Highline
Not so hot
Nissan Navara (-£800) Mitsubishi L200 (- £1,000) Ford Ranger old shape 10/12 plate (-£800)
Tipper, dropside and LutonHot
Ford Transit 350 old shape single cab tippers, Ford Transit 350 old shape double cab tippers in clean condition
Not so hot
Volkswagen Crafter tippers (-£1,200) Vauxhall Movano tippers (-£1,500) Mercedes-Benz 313 double cab tippers (-£800), Lutons without tail lifts (- £1,500) and MWB/SWB dropsides (- £800)
Welfare examples eg. 15 Seat Ford Transit and Renault Master, Volkswagen Crafter 15/17 seat
Not so Hot
Ford Tourneo old shape 08/12 (-£1,500), Ford Transit 350 EL 17 seats without tachographs (-£1,800) with Tachographs (-£,1200)
The buyer appetite has been there to see during November and both physical and online attendances remained very positive. This is incredible and further underpins the strength of the UK market place. Many have confirmed retail demand has remained positive and steady during November, even with many recording they are carrying up to 20% more volume year on year. It has also been noticeable during Q4 with the increased numbers of franchise dealer attending our sales. In my opinion, this is down to two factors, the increase on concentrating on 2/3 years old used stock and the availability of Euro6 for some manufacturers.
Looking forwardThe first week of November saw an increase in volumes and we’re seeing this again in December; however both have showed a slight downturn in conversion results. In my opinion, volume in December could be up to 30% greater than we witnessed in the same period during 2015. Many vendors have confirmed they will be selling right up to the last week - this is completely different than 12 months ago. There has been a noticeable difference when comparing Q4 2016 against 2015, with volume up by 18% but an astonishing £218 uplift with age and mileage being identical. The big question during December will be around retail demand and the historic gamble all buyers face at this time of the year, buy in December or wait until January… This will be the driving force around conversion rates during December as if the retail demand softens, or buyers wait, condition and price will remain key. Buyers will select the cleaner stock first and only buy heavily damaged stock if the price is reserved correctly.
As the UK’s number one CV auction company, Manheim has plenty to celebrate with records tumbling left, right and centre. On the back of having the largest and most comprehensive CV auction programme in the UK, Manheim can proudly demonstrate its commitment to the CV industry and the significant role it will play in the future of the ever changing CV remarketing landscape.
Thank you for all your support, we value all feedback, every unit and every customer. From everyone at Manheim Commercials we wish all your teams, families and friends a vantastic Christmas and a prosperous and memorable new year.
Thank you again
Regards Matthew Davock
Head of Light Commercial Vehicles