Andy Conde on Manheim rostrum

The Gavel - February 2022


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Wholesale market opinion from our resident car and LCV auction experts, Andy Conde and Stuart Peak.

Andy Conde - cars

Andy Conde on Manheim Rostrum

Welcome back to The Gavel, my first of 2022 reflecting on the wholesale market at the start of the year, and what a start it has been.

I’m sure many reading this will agree that January felt more like two months rolled into one with how busy it has been. We all saw the dramatic price increases for used cars throughout 2021, but January yet again was another record month.

I should note that the increases are not uniform; while some makes and models have risen, others, such as the 4x4 sector, have struggled due the mild winter and lack of snow. But there is still time, and if we do get a spell of severe weather than demand and therefore prices for these vehicles will spike.

Like any industry, the motor trade is often governed by external conditions that are beyond our control, and this has certainly been the case for the used vehicle market which continues to be affected by new car supply issues. I found my colleague Philip Nothard’s analysis of the driving factors behind new car supply issues very enlightening for those interested.

Thankfully, the demand for used vehicles within our auctions is fairly well balanced with supply and we are still seeing those lower prices vehicles making strong money against CAP values. The section of the market that has struggled of late are vehicles in the £15k-£25k bracket, but there is still a marketplace for the higher priced prestige product.

Across our auction sites that are open for physical auctions, we continue to see a steady increase in the number of buyers attending, but it must be said that a large number have become accustomed to buying online and likely prefer the convenience, and warmth, of their own home or office.

Looking ahead, I would expect February to follow a similar vein to what we have seen so far this year – so strong values and a good balance of used car supply and demand – however, we should keep an eye on those outside influences which might just make the difference as the year progresses.


Stuart Peak - LCVs

Stuart Peak on Manheim rostrum

It feels a long time since my last update; Christmas and January certainly went in the blink of an eye, and as predicted, we have had a very busy start to the year with our LCV sales.

Stock levels have increased throughout the first month of the year, with arrivals increasing 35% vs. the same period last year. But what has this meant for the used LCV market in January?

What we are seeing is more cautious bidding following reports from the trade that retail activity has started off slower than expected. First-time conversions have remained steady, with seven out of ten vans selling first time, but this is about 10% less than what we would expect to see in a normal January market, although not uncommon for other periods throughout the year. 

Our average selling price broke a new record in January, for the first time ever exceeding £11,000 in a single month, marginally beating our previous record by £96 set in September 2021. Over the last two months we have seen some slight downward adjustments to CAP prices, and this is a trend that I expect to see continue over the next two months also.

I urge everyone to not get downbeat about this though. We must remember that we have seen nearly two years of constant price increases to unprecedented levels, and in any normal period, we would expect to see vehicle prices fall as they get older. In fact, the complete opposite has happened since the pandemic started due to the much talked about factors with supply issues and sheer pent-up demand for quality used LCVs.

I feel that we are now at a stage where the market has almost found its level, but don’t be alarmed if we start to see further realignments throughout this year. 

As I write this update, we are in the first week of February and there has been an upturn in buyers logging on to our daily events and an increase in overall bids taken, almost certainly helped by the latest adjustments made to CAP prices. For me, it has felt that buyers have sat on the fence a little throughout January and rather than go all guns blazing, there has been a lot of watching going on. Although saying that, we sold the most vans in a single month in January since June 2021 which was pleasing, and I expect that we will sell a large volume of LCVs throughout February also.

At the moment, stock is not thin on the ground and there is more choice for buyers than there has been for nearly two years. Buyers can afford to be a little pickier than what they have been.

Do I expect to see further shortages this year? From what we are hearing, whilst there will be some continued issues with supply of new vehicles, it won’t be to the same degree as last year, and in turn, we expect to sell more vans throughout 2022. Perhaps 2022 will be the year of the market somewhat balancing out?

My current advice when talking to the franchised dealer network is to tread carefully with part-exchange values and always take mileage and condition into account. The pool of vehicles on the road is getting older, no question about it, and this can only mean one thing when we start to see these older vehicles defleeted – they will have more miles on them and are also likely to have higher levels of damage. My advice would be, if in any kind of doubt, ask for that second opinion, or simply treat with a little more caution than what you may have done last year.



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