The Gavel - November 2024
Wholesale market opinion from our resident Car, Van and Truck auction experts, Kevin Blincowe, Stuart Peak and Chris Mynott.
Kevin Blincowe - cars
It’s been a few months since my last entry for The Gavel - September, to be precise - so it’s high time for an update. Back then, I introduced you to our auctioneer career framework and the stellar team members embarking on that journey. I’m delighted to report that they are thriving, consistently selling cars and gaining momentum quickly. I’m confident they’ll continue moving in the right direction - you can expect a bigger update on this in early 2025. Now, let’s talk about the market.
If I had to sum up the past few months in two words, they would be consistency and balance. This year, the relationship between supply and demand has been harmonious, resulting in relatively stable prices. Unlike past years, where large valuation adjustments wreaked havoc on residual values and caused significant financial pain on those with lots of stock, 2024 has been far gentler.
The year started strong, full of optimism, and it’s been a consistent ride ever since. September, October, and into mid-November, we’ve moved tens of thousands of vehicles back into buyers’ stock. While numbers have been steady, the usual September plate-change surge has been notably absent - perhaps a sign of changing times. The days of the “big seasonal peak” in September might be gone, but the steadiness we’ve seen has brought its own rewards.
The buyer’s market
Recent weeks have shown a clear preference among buyers for vehicles requiring minimal preparation. Grade ones and twos are commanding strong prices, while other grades require vendors to be on the money with valuations, in order to achieve conversions. The mantra remains unchanged: the price must be right. That’s a theme we’ve reinforced at every opportunity, and it’s never been more relevant than it is now.
Reflection on 2024 (so far)
It feels a little early for a full year summary of 2024, but as December looms, there’s much to be proud of. This year has marked the steadying of the market, a gradual return to seasonal trends and a focus on helping our customers maximise vehicle value. Through careful guidance and a steady hand, we’ve maintained strong conversion rates and fostered positive outcomes.
Good results don’t happen by accident though. They’re the product of experience, collaboration and a deep understanding of what drives the industry forward. While 2024 isn’t quite in the rearview yet, the road so far has been one worth celebrating.
As always, the key takeaway for buyers and vendors alike remains this: adapt to the market and stay competitive…the results will follow. For an in-depth view of the used and new car market, check out Cox Automotive’s latest IQ report
Stuart Peak - LCVs
As I write this month’s blog sitting in the office at Shepshed, I am listening to the auction in the background. To set the scene, we have 250 vans in today’s sale, the hall is jam packed with buyers and over 150 buyers are currently logged in to the sale via simulcast. It is still early on in the sale, but I am anticipating another very strong conversion today. My gavel and mic are getting warmed up ready for me to take to the rostrum shortly.
The market has been perfectly aligned over the past six weeks, with the right amount of stock, an excellent level of buyer demand and prices that are well in line with a balanced market.
Overall, 2024 has seen some notable market movements as we’ve navigated the year. But with stock levels now back to pre-covid levels, we envisaged that prices would realign. We are now at the stage where the guide prices have caught up with market conditions and in many cases now, we are starting to see some over performance, whereby vans look good value for money vs current guide values. This is certainly helping with decision making processes for vendors attending our sales, whether that is physically or joining us online.
First time conversions are the strongest that we have witnessed over the last 18 months, and in October it felt like we couldn’t put a foot wrong. From an auctioneer’s perspective, this makes the job that little bit sweeter, as much of this year has been about digging in deep and battling hard for the results. First time conversions rose by 10% in October vs September, taking it up to 82%; and the same trend continued into November.
I am a firm believer that if you can sell four out of five vans on the first attempt, we’re seeing a very healthy market. Buyer numbers were at near record levels in October, with 953 unique buyers purchasing a van from one of our sales in the month. This was the largest number recorded since September 2021, a time when the market was going to astronomical levels.
Thursday 24th October saw our first sale at Gloucester since re-opening, and what a day it was. The level of support on the day was amazing and it was fantastic to see so many of the old Gloucester faces back in force. The buzz on the day was incredible and questionably one of my favourite sales in my 23-year career with Manheim. With our sales being held fortnightly, it allows for a real theme event. While the inclusion of trucks and plant from our industrial arm, means this sale, offers something I believe is quite unique to the market.
To summarise, the LCV market is in great shape, and the market is certainly on the front foot. Ready to start 2025 with a bang!
Chris Mynott - Truck and Plant
As I sit writing this, the HGV landscape has certainly changed since my last update back in September – quite literally. No more view of the runway at Bruntingthorpe, or yards full of cars… just a cracking view of two new auction lanes and a yard brimming with trucks. I am of course sitting in our all-new Gloucester auction centre. In case you haven’t heard, we recently re-opened the branch, giving it a new lease of life as a dedicated HGV, LCV and plant equipment venue. Two new auction lanes have been built, and we are now driving trucks through the lanes once again. We have a new fortnightly auction programme too… it’s all go, go go!
The online offering remains the same and we’re still using our network of auction centres to sell trucks and plant equipment, but Gloucester is the place to be. The first two auctions have been superb. It’s been fantastic to see some old faces again and get back to the atmosphere of a proper auction hall, with hundreds of trucks rolling through. In the lead up to opening our doors on 24th October, we were working behind the scenes to get everything ready for the big day. Which saw some fantastic results for vendors and buyers alike. With nearly 300 entries, over 100 physical buyers and 200 online buyers registered, we saw an uplift of nearly 15% in sale conversion versus the previous virtual sale. Additionally, the average sale price hit the £15k mark with a 70% overall conversion… it’s safe to say the day was a complete success.
In my July write up, I predicted a steady end to the summertime market and that has proven to be spot on, with this trend continuing into November. While there’s plenty of kit available to buyers, it’s clear they’re continuing to be cautious. Even the abundance of late plate stock has been tougher to shift than I anticipated, indicating it’s a buyers’ market these days.
The scramble for new trucks has certainly ended, but there’s still some superb deals to be had on new kit, which is keeping the values of used equipment in check. That said, the preparation for the Christmas peak period has seen an upturn in demand and value, for the more run-of-the mill kit, such as tractor units and boxes - which has been great to see. There’s still plenty in supply, but they’ve been selling well of late.
Some other amazing results we’ve seen in recent months include some tanker bodied trucks, both fuel and waste. We believe this is likely driven by the huge lead times for new product and the demand from local authorities in these rather damp times.
Plant and machinery remain popular, and the market is still strong. We’ve had everything from a golf buggy to a 15-ton excavator in recent auctions, and everything in between. All have found buyers with ease, and at good money too.
For the remainder of Q4, we have a few new deals on the cusp which will see volumes increasing even further. So, as the Gloucester buzz continues… it should be a cracking end to the year!