Weekly vans update with Matthew Davock - 19th October 2015
What a great 2 weeks of sales we have witnessed, buzzing auction halls and record online buyer attendees, of which all have shown they are keen and eager to source pre sold stock enquires and stock up ready for the months ahead. All sales up and down the country have shown consistently high levels of conversion rates, and some vendors have witnessed 100% conversions.
Stock levels have remained low considering quarter 1,2 and 3 volumes but saying that here at Manheim we are still offering 35% more volume year on year. Current results and performance shows we are in a very healthy market place.
Buyer feedback has remained mixed over the last couple of weeks, strange given the increase in attendances and performance, with nearly three quarters of buyers saying retail activity remains very slow. Many are reporting record levels of vans in stock! My view is the buyers have reacted to the dip in overall stock numbers by stocking up for fear of further reductions.
On the back of this, my view is stock levels will ramp up to near record levels in early to mid November. Buyers will hopefully see an increase in retail activity; supporting a strong end to the year for commercial sales. I am a firm believer that buyers will continue to buy right up until we close for Christmas. Many prefer to purchase stock prior to Christmas and prepare in advance for the January retail sales rush.
I remain close to our sister company Nextgear Capital to understand the stocking and funding plan situation. We now have 165 live van funding dealers; many have told me the majority of their retail sales of late have fallen into the £3000 to £7000 price bracket. Anything over this top figure has proven to be slow.
On the back of this I can report over the last 2 weeks I have witnessed the strongest demand all year in the car derived van sector. I would say sales performance to CAP has improved by up to 4% in the fortnight; sitting currently between 96% and 98% of the guide. On the rostrum I have been pleasantly surprised by the increase in bidding competition and first time conversion rates in this sector.
On the flip side, chassis cab, dropside and tipper have shown big signs of price softening. To illustrate this, over the last 2 weeks, these segments have been performing around the 84-88% of CAP Average. By stark comparison during Q1 and Q2, these segments were performing as high as 110% of guide. These segments have seen an increase in volume, especially in the last 6 weeks, the majority of which are compounded by poor condition. This has dragged the performance and demand appetite down to the lowest point of the year.
What’s been Hot in van sectors this week?
• Citroen Berlingo 3 seat vans
• Renault kangoo Maxi vans
• Nissan NV200
• Vauxhall Astra sportive
• Nissan Navara 3 litre models
• Toyota Hilux invincible 3 litre models
• Ford Transit 260/260 swb med roof examples
• Low loader platform vans
• 2010-2013 Volkswagen T5 with 102ps and above
What’s has been struggling to the guide this week
• Mitsubishi l200 lifestyle and workhorse
• New and Old shape Ford Rangers
• 2014+ Volkswagen Amarok
• Tipper and Dropside product
• Old shape Vauxhall Combo
• Vauxhall Corsa CDV
• Ford Transit 17 seat minibus
• Toyota Hiace
• Volkswagen T5 84 PS examples
Mileage and overall condition does play a major part on all the above. For those on the “Hot” list, if mileage is under 60,000, they are making premium money to the guide. “Hot” vans with metallic paint have made as much as a 10% premium over their standard white van cousins in the last 2 weeks.
I am also proud to report that we’ve just delivered our first ever connected “Pop Up” mobile offsite auction event! Utilising our award winning Simulcast enabled Volkswagen Amarok, we parked up at Hitachi Capital Commercial Vehicles’ state-of-the-art new CV HQ in Trowbridge. We broadcast via 4G Viprinet technology to over 150 buyers, 125 of whom were online, a unique selection of 59 premium channel selected vans (and 1 tractor!).
The overall result was “Vantastic” seeing 58 out of 60 units sold for an unbelievable 112% of CAP. This selection of vans was packed with very rare and exciting lots; many having very high specification. 75% of the stock was in colours/metallic. The event far exceeded our joint expectations; 59 vans (and a tractor!) on a Friday at an off-site location…..but like I have stated in many previous blogs, buyers will travel far and wide to chase rare stock and are willing to pay strong market premiums to own them.
To conclude the LCV market place is currently performing very well and the next few weeks looks promising, I feel if the expected de fleet volumes hit the market place by the first week of November the buyers demand will be there to see. The only concerns I have are around duplication, damage and timing. Duplication and damage is as the market witnessed in Q1 and Q2 and needs realistic pricing and management. In terms of timing, if the predicted volume does not hit until December, then we could see duplication and record volumes enter quarter 1 2016 have a knock on impact on both performance and first time conversion rates. Time will tell.
Thank you again for your continued and very much valued feedback, this next week is gearing up to be a very exciting week again in the world of van sales at your UK’s largest CV auction company.Thanks Matthew